After the crisis of 1999-2000, when the number of people requiring food assistance increased to over 10 million due to drought and subsequent crop and livestock failures, the number of beneficiaries reported by annual multi-agency assessment teams continues to decrease. It is logical that then number of beneficiaries in pastoral areas decreases at a relatively slower rate compared to crop-dependent areas, as pastoralists require more time to regain minimum herd size either through reproduction or purchase. Nonetheless, beneficiaries in southern and southeastern pastoral areas (Somali Region, Bale and Borena) is reduced from a high of 2.0 million in 2000 to 1.6 million in 2001 and approximately 1 million in 2002. In crop-dependent parts of the country, crop production has been favorable since the crisis with cereal and pulse production in 2001 the highest on record and in 2002 only slightly below that. And while localized crop failure still occurred in 2002, the large number of persons reportedly requiring external assistance to meet minimum consumption requirements belies the fact that Ethiopia is still not food secure even in the best of years. Chronic food insecurity is still a significant, if not worse, problem in 2002 after consecutive years of asset depletion due to attempts to compensate for crop losses. Beneficiary numbers in crop-dependent areas have decreased however not to the extent expected given good harvests; from a peak of 8.2 million in 2000, 4.6 million in 2001 and approximately 4 million in 2002.

Crop Dependent Populations

In the crop-dependent highlands of Ethiopia, from north to south, crop production is only slightly lower than last year’s record high (estimated 4% reduction). In general in the north, rainfall started on time but ceased early, with one or two weeks of heavy rain causing significant damage in very localized incidences. However, given good production, the fact that large populations are regularly unable to either produce or purchase enough food to feed themselves throughout the year is becoming more apparent. In Tigray beneficiary numbers remain at roughly 1 million (28% of the rural population) largely due to chronic food production deficits and lack of alternative income. Few pocket areas in Tigray did experience unusual rainfall patterns, including heavy Meher rains in W. Tigray and a failure of Belg rains in E. Tigray, resulting in a slight spatial shift in food insecurity.  In Amhara, populations benefit from Belg and Meher production, the former being highly variable. However, given good Belg and Meher production in 2001, when compared to 2001 beneficiaries, in some zones, e.g. North Wollo (380,000 to 170,000), numbers are decreased by more than 50%. However given high levels of poverty, specifically noted by the lack of plough oxen obliging up to 45% of farmers in South Wollo to borrow oxen in exchange for daily labour, farmers were unable to take advantage of timely rains and planted late. Coupled with the early cessation of Meher rains, characteristic of the northern part of the country, production in South Wollo is expected to be similar to the long term average, i.e. insufficient to meet local consumption requirements.

As mentioned, early cessation of Meher rains did cause some reduction in production, however minimal in the eastern Amhara. However, in the Tekeze Basin (North Gondar) and the Abay Gorge (East Gojjam) and respectively, early cessation of rains in the lowlands resulted in abnormal crop losses resulting in an increase of population requiring assistance when compared to 2001. In areas experiencing similar rainfall patterns and resulting decreases in crop production, livestock prices are also in decline as farmers sell animals anticipating reductions in available pasture and water and hence livestock conditions.

Moving further south, in SNNPR, rains were largely in excess with little respite between Belg and Meher rains during the year. In Wolayta for example, total Meher rainfall exceeded average by up to 400% in Kindo Koisha (1059mm vs 700mm), Humbo (700mm vs 400mm) and Damot Gale (801mm vs 550mm)(2001 and average, respectively). In some areas the excess rain and hailstorms caused extra-ordinary crop damage and resultant loss of income (Gedo, Gurage, KAT, Hadiya). In other areas, while crop losses were reported, it was insignificant enough to warrant being labeled an acute problem. Given overall good production, in areas with largely a chronic problem of food insecurity, e.g. Wolayta, the number of people requiring food assistance has decreased substantially from 2001 (over 50%) but still remains significant.

In major markets of all areas assessed, cereal prices remain below average (up to 50%), inevitably increasing access to markets by those who depend on purchases for consumption. However many teams reported local concerns of a reduced capacity to purchase by the community as whole, including net sellers, thus reducing the demand for cash crops and petty commodities/trade that poor families depend on for income. Due to local surpluses in some areas, there was expressed a preference for cash interventions including local purchase. While in areas that experienced a more pervasive crop failure such as East and West Haraghe, food assistance was recommended.

While conditions are much improved since 1999-2000 for crop dependent parts of the country, given the destitution experienced as a result of consecutive years drought, the effects of which have not been mitigated by adequate development initiatives, a significant number of people in crop-dependent areas will be unable to meet their minimum food requirements without continued assistance.

Pastoral and Agro-pastoral Populations

In the southern and southeastern lowlands of Ethiopia, acute problems persist due to inadequate rainfall throughout 2001. After poor Gu rainfall in early 2001, followed by poor Deyr rains in parts of Somali Region in late 2001, parts of Somali Region such as Afder and Liben also continue to experience abnormally dry conditions inhibiting livestock production, the main source of income for these populations. Largely pastoral and agro-pastoral, populations in the lowlands of East and West Haraghe, Bale and Borena experienced the late onset of Belg rains in early 2001 and late onset as well as early cessation of Meher rains. Slowing recovery from the severe drought of 1999-2000, the lack of rain resulted in decreased staple crop production, e.g. decrease of 57% in East Haraghe from long term average, as well as cash crop production such as chat and ground nuts. Dependent on river flows from the highlands to the lowlands for recessional agriculture as well as river-fed irrigation, agro-pastoral populations along the Fafen and Wabi Shabelle Rivers in Somali Region also experienced reduced crop production. Combined with increasing staple cereal prices in Somali Region,  the terms of trade for pastoralists in the area are increasingly unfavorable. Unfortunately, acute food insecurity remains demonstrable in malnutrition surveys undertaken in these areas with global acute malnutrition unacceptably high by international standards in the general population of Golo-Odo, East Haraghe (19%), Bale (17%), and Gode (30%) and in displaced populations in urban areas such as Hartisheik, Jijiga (22%). In Afder and Liben, further studies and evidence of severe food insecurity have been impeded by an increase in conflict. Recent reports from these areas indicate worsening conditions resulting in influxes of vulnerable groups, largely the elderly, women and children, to urban areas in Afder (Bare and Hargele).

Table 1. Food Assistance Requirements in 2002