Between
February and May 2002, Ethiopia experienced a near total failure of Belg
(short) rains and early withdrawal of rains in most parts of the country. Kiremt
(long) rains were delayed by up to six weeks, prolonging the normally short
dry season to up to three months. The erratic nature of rains has had a
detrimental effect on crop production, of which more than 97% is rain-fed.
The
failure of Belg and the subsequent
inadequacy of Kiremt rains in pastoral
Afar and northern Shinile led to the rapid deterioration of conditions including
the death of livestock and shortly thereafter the increase in malnutrition among
children under five.
In
crop dependent areas, while the early cessation of Belg rains had an impact on the land preparation for long cycle
crops grown during the main Meher season,
the delay in the onset of Kiremt rains
caused delays in planting. The immediate result was the absence of a green
harvest between August and September and an expected delay in the main harvest
by one to two months. Populations dependent on subsistence farming are presently
experiencing an extended lean season. In areas that are chronically food
insecure, this has resulted in a rapid deterioration in nutritional status.
Potentially
even more disastrous, the extended dry spell resulted in the complete failure of
high yielding long cycle crops, specifically along the eastern escarpment in
Tigray and Amhara and the lowlands of East and West Haraghe, Arsi, Bale in
Oromiya Region and in the Rift Valley of SNNPR. Particularly affected are
sorghum and maize, staple foods for many of the rural poor, which together
account for approximately 40% of total cereal production in Ethiopia.
Due
to either the complete failure of crops or the substitution of long cycle crops
for lower yielding short cycle crops, the harvest in November/December will only
bring short term relief to food insecurity. Further more the significant
reduction in coffee prices has also caused for many people to be dependant on
food aid in areas where it was self sufficient. Therefore, food insecurity in
Ethiopia in 2003 is expected to be significantly worse than average.
Afar
is an entirely pastoral region with the exception of some irrigated agriculture
schemes producing cotton and cereals (Amibara, Dubti, Assaita) and recession
agriculture practiced along the Awash riverbed.
The
Belg (sugum) rains were a complete failure causing widespread losses of
livestock, with mortality rates as high as 70% in Zone 3. Early migration of
livestock in already poor condition to the northeastern highlands of Amhara and
Tigray caused further distress and deaths. With the loss of livestock products
for consumption or sale, populations reported relying largely on the collection
of wild foods and food aid. The impact of livestock morbidity and mortality was
felt most acutely by under 5 children with more than 70% of households reporting
no milk for their children.
Nutritional surveys conducted in August in some
localities of Zone 1 and 3 of Afar region indicated that malnutrition rates
range from 18 to 32%.
Bringing
some relief, the Kiremt (karma)
rains started in late July. Unfortunately the mainly sporadic and erratic
showers did not restore pasture and water supplies to normal levels. Zone 2
received few days rainfall. The remaining livestock are still in poor condition,
rendering them susceptible to endemic diseases. Recent reports indicate that in
search of better conditions, Afar pastoralists are once again migrating to the
highlands of Amhara, competing for resources and risking spread of livestock
disease across regional borders.
This
year, the region experienced its worst disaster in the last decade for what
concerns Afar livelihood asset depletion, animal death and water shortage.
Severely
affected parts of Amhara Region can be divided into the eastern escarpment of
North and South Wollo, Oromiya and North Shewa bordering Afar Region, the
lowland gorges bordering rivers in East Gojjam and South Gonder and the lowlands
of Wag Hamra. These areas have been most affected by poor rainfall, particularly
the late onset of the Kiremt rains by
up to 6 weeks. Zikuala woreda in Wag Hamra Zone is one of the most severely hit
areas of the region with only for few days of rain recorded since the supposed
onset of the Kiremt season in June.
Late
onset of Kiremt rains severely
compromised land preparation for the Meher
season in affected areas. The poor condition of livestock after the extended dry
spell resulted in weak animals and hence inadequate ploughing. When long cycle
crops failed along the eastern escarpment in North and South Wollo, Oromiya
and North Shewa Zones, and the Tekeze and Abay Gorges in North Gonder and
East Gojjam Zones respectively, most farmers were forced to shift from long
cycle to short cycle crops. Indicative of the impact in Amhara Region, long
cycle crops such as maize and sorghum average 17-20 Qt/ha while a short cycle
crop such as teff or short cycle sorghum averages 9-10 Qt/ha. While maize and
sorghum comprise between 25 and 45% of total crops in North and South Wollo and
North and South Gonder, it is grown largely in lowland areas that have been most
affected by the drought, including Oromiya Zone where maize and sorghum make up
more than 80% of total crop production.
According to
the field reports, large reduction in input use, as much as 50% in South Gonder
and East Gojjam and 30-40% in North Shewa is expected to result in significant
production reduction. In addition to anticipating less than average production
due to reduced yields from short cycle crops and reduced inputs, this production
is still dependent on rains continuing until end September/early October.
In
the western midlands and highlands (West and East Gojjam, North and South Gonder),
long cycle crops were planted up to one month late. While crop conditions are
relatively good, average or slightly below average production will only be
obtained if rains extend past their usual cessation date into late September.
Other
sources of income such as livestock have also been affected. In Jille Timuga,
Oromiya, Bureau of Agriculture (BoA) reported a loss of more than 50,000 cattle,
in part due to the dramatic increase in diseases presumably as a result of
contact with infected livestock from Afar. Other quantitative data provided by
BoA in North Wollo, Wag Hamra and North Shewa indicated livestock deaths
numbering nearly 30,000 largely in woredas bordering Afar. Unable to produce
crops or raise livestock, the numbers of people in Wag Hamra looking for wage
labour has increased, causing the price to decline from 5-7 birr/day to 3-5 birr/day.
With cereals selling at 2 birr/kg, wage labor alone is insufficient to sustain a
family..
The
immediate effect of delayed rains has been an extended lean season. An unusual
and unacceptable decline in nutritional status has already been measured among
chronically food insecure populations. Nutritional surveys conducted in July and
August by various agencies indicated that 13 and 17% Global Acute Malnutrition (GAM)
in some localities of West Belessa, North Gonder and Dessie Zuria in South Wollo
respectively.
Harari Region and Dire Dawa
Administration, adjacent to hard-hit Shinile Zone, Somali Region and East
Haraghe Zone, Oromiya Region, are facing similar conditions with only slightly
better conditions in Dire Dawa due to more regular Kiremt rains.
Similar to Haraghe, in Harari, the lowland
areas are worse affected with anticipated production declines of 30% in the
midlands and 35 to 40% in the lowland areas even if rains last until the end of
September. Already 20% of maize has been lost but replanted with the assistance
of seeds distributed by NGOs. According to assessment teams, while sorghum is
normally at head formation stage in August, this year only the April planted
sorghum was at near head formation (40% of the plots) and those planted in June
were above knee height (60% of the plots). Pulses and wheat were planted on time
and were at the leafy stage. In Dire Dawa, the area planted is 22% less than the
long-term average. While sorghum planted in April was at near head formation
(20%), sorghum planted in June is only knee height (55%). A significant
percentage of crops was planted in August and was at germination stage at the
time of the assessment (25%). Crops planted in June and August will only be
harvested in December and February respectively. The extension of the rain into
October, beyond its normal cessation date, is essential for near average
production.
Market
conditions indicate an increase in negative coping mechanisms being employed by
food insecure communities. Charcoal and firewood sales have become the major
source of income, destroying already badly depleted forest resources. This year,
the supply in the market is much higher resulting in lower prices.
Oromiya
is the largest region in the country and possesses a variety of agro-ecological
climates. The region produces 50% and 38% of the country's maize and sorghum
respectively. However this year, maize and sorghum production in Arsi, Bale,
East Shewa, East and West Haraghe is anticipated to be substantially below
normal. In East and West Haraghe, maize production is anticipated to be less
than 10% of average.
Regarding
rainfall, the eastern half of Oromiya, specifically the lowlands bordering Afar
and Somali Regions, experienced the near total failure of Belg rains resulting in appeals for assistance as early as July.
Subsequently, these same areas suffered from the late start of the Kiremt
rains creating dry spells of up to three months. With rains having finally
started in August, as of September these areas had received less amounts of
precipitation than normal in the Meher
season (25 to 50% below normal).
For
pastoralists living in East Shewa bordering Afar Region, poor rains from
February to May resulted in livestock deaths comparable to those in bordering
Afar Region. Losses of livestock reported in household surveys in some areas
were 40 to 50%. West Hararghe also quantified livestock losses at over 13,000.
For crop dependent populations, the majority of the long cycle maize and sorghum
crops in the eastern (West and East Hararghe) and central (Arsi, Bale and East
Shewa) zones of Oromiya Region failed due to moisture stress and absence of
rainfall during crucial flowering stages. In East and West Hararghe, where maize
and sorghum accounts for nearly 90% of total cereal production, the implication
on food security is critical. Teams estimated that if rains end before October,
maize losses would be 90% in the lowlands and 60% in the mid and highlands.
However, even with rains extending into October, a month longer than their
normal withdrawal date, West Hararghe would hardly benefit at all with
production losses projected at an estimated 85% in the lowlands and 50% in the
mid and highlands. The assessment team of East Shewa reported losses of 75%
sorghum and 80% maize.
In
the lowlands of West Hararghe and East Shewa, the most severely affected areas,
the nutritional situation deteriorated rapidly when green harvests of maize and
livestock products such as milk were not available. Nutrition surveys in East
Shewa (July) indicate malnutrition rates of 13% among under 5 yrs and as high as
17% in children under 29 months..
In
the affected areas, absence of Kiremt
rains failed to provide adequate conditions for replanting short cycle cereals
(wheat, barley, teff) or planting of pulses in June/July. With the onset of
rains in late August, subsistence farmers began to plant but face the inevitable
delays in harvest and an extension of the lean season until December. Even then,
a harvest in December depends on extended rains until mid October.
Similar
to West Hararghe and East Shewa Zones, East Hararghe, the mid to lowlands in
southern Bale, and pocket areas in Arsi Zone, declines in maize and sorghum are
anticipated. However, in North Shewa where maize and sorghum account for 10-20%
of cereal production and the crops completely failed, farmers replanted with
wheat and teff, less yielding short cycle crops. Teams estimate declines in
total Meher production in North Shewa
around 35%. In the mid and highlands of Arsi, Bale, North and Northwest Shewa,
wheat and barley, which comprise approximately 65% of total crop production in
these zones, crops are less affected.
In
the western zones of the region (West and East Wellega, Jimma, and Illubabor),
the Kiremt rains were late but have
since been adequate in distribution. These Zones are less affected.
Prices
have steeply increased in the last 6 months in the region. However, in Arsi,
Borena, and North Shewa, while prices are higher than last year, they are not
yet as high as 2000. Other sources of income are also affected by price
fluctuations. Livestock in Borena have increased in sales, driving prices
downward. Prices of coffee remain extremely low on both national and
international markets.
2.2.5.
Southern Nations Nationalities and People’s Region (SNNPR)
The
Southern Nations Nationalities and People’s Region (SNNPR) is composed of
zones with considerable fluctuation in agro-ecological climates. These
agro-ecological belts vary from: 1) fertile highlands with one annual growth
season from June to November, 2) midland areas in the north and east with two
growing seasons from February to June and July/August to November, and 3)
agro-pastoral lowlands in the southwest of the region. By definition, Belg
crops are those harvested before August therefore much of SNNPR is
characterised as Belg dependent. During the main Belg
planting season from February to June, farmers usually plant long cycle
cereals and sweet potatoes..
While
the onset of the Belg rainfall was
either on time or only slightly delayed in the majority of the region
(February), enabling timely land preparation, planting and germination, the
complete absence of rainfall from mid-May to end-August in the lowlands resulted
a near total failure of the maize crops there. Particularly hard hit areas were
Wolayta, Gamogofa, Gurage, Silti,Alaba, KT and Sidama Zones.
Given
the Belg failure, lowland farmers
attempted to compensate for earlier losses by increasing area coverage and
production of Meher crop, replowing
fields prior to the Belg harvest,
intercropping and planting of pulses. On the other hand, Meher production in
some midlands and highlands account
up to 70% of annual production. However, below normal Kiremt rains in July and August are also jeopardizing this
production. Rainfall gauge data indicate that in August in Arba Minch, Kebri
Mengist, and Konso, rainfall was only 24%, 10%, 17% of normal, respectively.
Satellite imagery confirms rainfall gauge data with the area showing the
lowlands of the Rift Valley receiving less than 25% of normal rainfall for the
June-August period and the mid and highlands receiving 25 to 50% of normal
rainfall.
Extended
rainfall in October is imperative to ensure adequate production of crops planted
in August/September. If rains withdraw at their normal time (September),
production in Wolayta and Gamogofa, already suffering from particularly poor Belg
production, can expect a 40% reduction on Meher
crops.
Market
prices in the region have been steadily increasing since March, surpassing 2001
levels, but remaining at or slightly below 2000 levels. Given the extended dry
season from April to August, livestock are in very poor condition. Terms of
trade between livestock and cereals continue to disfavor livestock owners.
2.2.6.
Somali Region
Somali
Region is still recovering from a devastating drought in 1999/2000. This year, Belg
(gu) rains were normal in the southern part of the region. While
pastoralists living in the northern part of the region adjacent to Afar (Shinile
Zone), as well as those adjacent to East and West Haraghe (Fik Zone) have
received much lower than average rains resulting in unseasonal declines in water
and pasture for livestock.
In
Shinile, poor rains in April/May resulted in inadequate pasture and water for
pastoralists. Migration in search of better resources north into Afar Region
resulted in clan conflicts between the Afar and Somalis in some ares. Unable to
find means to save their livestock, death were reportedin the western parts of
the zone.
It
was hoped that the Kiremt (karan) rains
in Shinile would alleviate poor conditions. However, rains have been poorly
distributed and the food security situation has not improved. Pasture remains
critically low in Shinile Zone and livestock pressure is high in areas where
livestock have crowded.
With
poor Belg (gu) rains in Fik, what
would normally be a short dry season has been extended and the situation remains
precarious. Pasture is scarce in Fik Zone and livestock have moved as far as
Jijiga and Gode for water. With relatively better rainfall in Jijiga, pasture
and water conditions have improved.
In
Shinile zone, cereal prices remained higher than normal due to poor crop
production in nearby areas and livestock prices declined due to the poor
condition of animals. ..
The
food security situation in Shinile Zone is generally very poor and, given that
in late September the six-month long dry season will set in, the outlook is very
bleak. While the immediate situation in both Zones is critical, Fik Zone should
benefit from October/November rains, which need to be carefully monitored,
hopefully alleviating the situation there.
2.2.7.
Tigray Region
In
Eastern and Southern Zones conditions are similar to North/South Wollo and
Oromiya Zones in Amhara, along the eastern escarpment bordering Afar, and
received similar if not worse Kiremt
rains. The Kiremt rains (June-August)
were one month late and the quantity of rainfall received in the Eastern and
Southern Zones was more than 50% below normal while in Central Zones, between
50% and 25% below normal.
Both
the delays and poor amount of rainfall have adversely affected the agricultural
cycle. In both seasons, land preparation and planting processes were hampered.
Along the eastern escarpment, there was widespread substitution of maize
(normally 32-42% of total cereal crop in Central and Southern Tigray) with short
cycle crops. Not only has the area cultivated for long cycle crops shown a
significant decline (25%) this year compared to the 5-year average and last year
(15%), but there has been a significant decrease in fertilizer use (60%)
compared to the 5-year average (1997-2001) in Central and Eastern Tigray.
Farmers
and woreda experts reported that most of the crops were planted late and in
order to get a reasonable harvest rainfall must extend up to the
September/October. Most of the crops will be at flowering and seed setting stage
after mid-September; at this stage of development moisture will be critical.
However, this means that rains must extend beyond their normal cessation time.
Shortage
of rainfall, and the resulting lack of pasture and drinking water, has also
impacted the physical condition of livestock, making them also more susceptible
to disease. In lowland areas, where livestock represent an important part of the
population’s livelihood, out-migration to neighboring woredas was reported.
More than 20,000 cattle deaths were reported in South Tigray and 60 to 70% of
livestock were still in poor to very poor condition. Poor production prospects
have resulted in cereal price hikes, not only higher than 2001 but higher than
2000, a crisis year, which combined with the increase of livestock sales at
depressed prices, generated unfavorable terms of trade for the rural population.
2.2.8.
Gambella and Benishangul-Gumuz Regions
The
Gambella lowlands are a complex economy and not entirely dependent on their own
crop production but dependent largely on cereal imports from the highlands and
livestock sales. Therefore, while the late rains have had some impact on crop
production, the food security situation in the region is not precarious at this
time. Much will depend on how the rains progress not only in Gambella itself but
also in the highlands.
While
rains started late throughout Gambella, Zone 3, where populations are largely
pastoral, and western Zone 2 are worst affected. River levels of the Akobo,
Gillo and Baro rivers, which depend on rains from the highlands, were also
substantially below normal at the end of August. This will adversely affect
recessional agriculture, which is also very important to Gambella as perennial
rivers normally overflow in July and August and recede in September or October.
At
the moment, maize is found at two growth stages. Either it was planted in
April/May and has undergone moisture stress during germination stage, and, if it
survives, will have expected yields well below average, or maize and sorghum was
planted late and is in good condition, even if late in the phenological stage.
If rains last until end September, a harvest can be expected. Livestock
condition, pasture and water availability at present are good. While some
disease outbreaks have been reported, the numbers are not of epidemic
proportions.
As
a green harvest is available, it is unlikely the region will require assistance
as a result of drought before December. Depending on the cessation of the rains
in the mid and highlands, the amount of river overflow and therefore
opportunities for recessional agriculture, it is moderately likely that the
region will need some assistance in 2003.
Similar
to Gambella, in Benshangul Gumuz, the rains started up to 6 weeks late. The
delayed onset of the rains resulted in late planting of maize and sorghum (70%
of total cereal production). This forced farmers to switch from these usual long
cycle crops to less productive crops like sesame, niger seed and haricot beans.
Even so, the harvest depends on rains extending into November, well beyond their
normal cessation time. Significant damage has also been incurred since July due
to rodent infestation, heavily damaging maize and haricot bean crops.